There's no doubt that many things in reality looked designed: However, what if that’s really just a biased human perception/some kind of natural elaborate illusion of reality and natural forces really did design all reality by a very random accident? This theory is called 'the blind watchmaker', and it states even though reality looks designed (like a watch would though to be designed by a watchmaker) that's only a natural illusion and/or human bias: all the design in really was just natural forces that happen to randomly get reality to looking designed ( The watch was made by a 'blind' watchmaker: 'bind' representing the 'blind' natural forces that just happened to make a watch out of natural forces and just so happens to look like it was intentionally created by a watchmaker) [1].
So, what if we are biased? What if all this complexity and laws in reality were just truly a random natural accident and just happens to look purposefully designed?
Well, what are the actual odds of all this complexity forming from random, naturally?
I order to see if we are biased, we need to ask what are the chances that reality did form the way it is naturally? This would also further see if the theory of evolution is really true (since the theory of evolution states that reality/the universe evolved the way it is from natural forces/random accidents).
In order to find this out we need to use Probability (mathematics): Mathematics that deal/calculates what event will happen (or has happened) based on what can happen: it can be used to calculate what odds it would be if natural events in the past really did form the universe the way it is now. based on the probability of an event happening it can be concluded how likely it is (or was) to happen:
if it's 1 out of 1 chance then it's a 100% chance of happening: this means it's very certain; it's pretty much going to happen, if it's 2 out of 4 chance then it's a 50% chance of happening: this means it's even; it's equal chance that the event will or will not happen, if it's 0 out of 1 chance then its 0% chance of happening: this means it's impossible; it's pretty much not going to happen. Any odds approaching 100% are very likely to happen, however and odds approaching 0% are very unlikely to happen (for reference, usually an odd below 5% and especially under 1% are considered pretty much impossible).
So, what are the odds of reality forming the way it is, naturally?
The probability of fine tuning to have happened naturally
As stated before, the universe (and all life in it) only exists now in its present form, because of the fine-tuning of forces in reality were/are just right.
But what are the odds that this fine-tuning happened naturally?
The precision of some fine-tuning forces in the universe:
So, what are the odds of fine-tuning happening naturally? We can find out by looking at exactly how fine-tuned some of these forces are:
The precision of mass to energy conversion
"Stars like the sun produce energy by fusing two hydrogen atoms into a single helium atom. During that reaction, 0.007 percent of the mass of the hydrogen atoms is converted into energy, via Einstein’s famous e = mc2 equation. But if that percentage were, say, 0.006 or 0.008,...The lower number would result in a universe filled only with hydrogen; the higher number would leave a universe with no hydrogen (and therefore no water) and no stars like the sun."[2]
So, we see the mass to energy force had to be very precise in order to make a universe that exists now: so precise it has to be exactly 0.007 only a slight fraction of a number higher (0.006) or lower (0.008) and the universe would not exist like it does now.
That's very specific.
The precision of the ripples of the Big Bang
The ripples from the big bang were very finely tuned, but how fine-tuned were they?
the C.O.B.E. satellite found that the ripples were extremely precise, specifically 1 part out of 100,000 [3A]
that means it was sort of like 1 out of 100,000 of a chance (or about 0.001% of a chance) to get the right sized ripples in order to create the universe like it exists now!
The odds were seen as so low to this happening naturally by the scientists that discovered this, that some present at the discovery nicknamed them ‘The machining marks of the creation of the universe’ and also ‘the fingerprints of the maker’. hinting to how they seemed to be strong proof that an intelligent designer seems to have fine-tuned them just right compared to just happening naturally [3A].
The precision of the ratio of the electromagnetic force to gravity
“Ratio of the electromagnetic force to gravity in the early universe had to be accurate by 1 to 1040 in order we can have the chemistry we do now in the universe” [3B]
What is 1 in 1040? well in standard notation it's:
1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
So how big are those odds of this ratio being formed naturally/randomly? Well, it would be like this in comparison:
“let’s imagine that we covered, say, the whole of Russia with small coins and we built the piles of coins over the whole of Russia to the height of the moon. And then we took a billion systems like that and we painted one of the coins red and we asked you to blindfold a friend and go and find it, they got a one chance of the ten to the forty (1 out of 1040) of finding it.”[3C]
That’s the same odds of this electromagnetic force to gravity ratio being kept naturally/randomly! (in percentage, this would be much much lower than 1%: so pretty much impossible to have happened naturally)
These are all not light odds to bet on! These are very very very precise ratios/ measurements: that if changed even by a tiny hairline fraction it would have drastic effects on the universe/reality and would cause the universe to not exists like it does now!
So, what are the odds all of this very very precise fine-tuning happened naturally? It looks like it's extremely slim odds indeed:
This is soo much of a slim odd, physicist who are aware of this problem see (an) intelligent designer(s) as the only reasonable conclusion responsible for the very precise fine-tuning of reality (apart from multiple universes: which will be covered later, but notice none of these physicists think it's even remotely and option all this happened just naturally without something else going on outside of the universe: that is (an) intelligent designer[s] or multiple universes):
“Call it a fluke, a mystery, a miracle. Or call it the biggest problem in physics (that is if fine-tuning happened naturally: as the dominate theory of evolution states) ….invoking a benevolent creator,…”[2]
The odds that life on Earth (and the components for life) evolved naturally?
So, moving on from the universal fine-tuning to organic life on planet Earth: what are the odds that all the complexities found in life on Earth just evolved naturally from natural forces?
The probability of one gene being formed to produce one functioning protein
Evolution states that the first cells randomly formed by slowly having random mutations in their genome that lead to a new useful function for the cell: over the time of millions/billions of years all these random mutations would have eventually led to all types of new species with different functions because of all these mutations. However, for this to happen the genome needs to have a pretty good bit of useful mutations in order to get the magnitude of different species evolving from a single cell/other species in millions/billions of years:
But what are the odds of how often cells genomes mutated into a useful new function? A test was done to show the odds of a short protean randomly being mutated from the genome to evolve a new function for the cell; this is the result of that test:
“For a short protean 150 amino acids long, the ratio is 1 (protean that will fold into a functioning structure) ...:1077 (that is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) unusual gibberish sequences: so, the ratio of function to non-functional is the ratio 1:1077.”[4]
(that’s also pretty much saying it's impossible to happen naturally in mathematical terms: Also, this is just for one small protean: keep in mind there are at least billions if not trillions of far more complex proteins in different cells that needed to randomly mutate if life on Earth evolved naturally: making the odds even more vastly slimmer.)
The odds of all 2,000 known enzymes being formed naturally
Enzymes are specific protean molecules, that react with other molecules to perform vital functions to a cell/organism; there are over 2,000 types of enzymes used by living cells [5A]. Since at least 2,000 enzymes have to form naturally to be used by cells like they are now; what are the chances these at least these 2,000 enzymes formed randomly?
English mathematician Sir Fred Hoyle calculated the odds:
"...the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only 1 in 1040,000,
(That's 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 X 39,000 more zeros!!!)
an outrageously small probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup.” [5B]
He concluded there was NO WAY all 2,000+ enzymes formed naturally: all Enzymes (thus all life on Earth) looks like it could not be from random natural forces:
“Life cannot have had a random beginning..." [5B]
The probability of a single hemoglobin molecule evolving naturally
Hemoglobin is a protean used by red blood cells to transport oxygen to different cells in the body of an organism: it's used by all types of vertebrae (spine possessing) organisms: like all Mammals, birds, and fish. Hemoglobin is made up of about 574 amino acids: making hemoglobin an average sized protean [6]. So, what are the odds this relatively simple (yet vital) protean evolved naturally randomly for all vertebrates to use?
So even assuming in only the vital 574 or so amino acids making up a single hemoglobin molecule were all together at the same time somewhere; what would be the odds they would align in the exactly right sequence (with no mistakes) to produce a functioning hemoglobin molecule?
the odds would look something like this:
" The total number of possibilities turns out to be 1.8 x 10701 (in which only one of these possibilities is in the exact right order to form a hemoglobin molecule). In other words, that's 18 followed by 700 zeroes. Here's what that number would look like:
180,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000."[7]
For perspective of how insanely big this number is; the number of stars estimated to be in the universe is around 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000: though very large, nowhere near this number!
Infact even if hypothetically "...we had a universe containing a trillion...galaxies, each galaxy composed of a trillion stars like our sun, and each sun orbited by 10 planets like our earth (obviously preposterous), and if on each of these planets you had ten billion inhabitants, and if each of these inhabitants had the same amount of blood as the average human being (and so the total amount of red blood cells on just one planet would be 2 x 1023), and if each blood cell contained 3 x 108 hemoglobin molecules -- then the total number of hemoglobin molecules in the whole universe would be 6 x 1056 . Compared to the possible combinations of the 539 amino acids in hemoglobin (1.8 x 10701), this number is infinitesimally small -- virtually zero ! But let's make the game even more interesting. Let's say you have a billion new hemoglobin molecules for each original one every second for...6 billion years...During that span of time, almost 2 x 1017 seconds would have elapsed. Therefore, with a billion new hemoglobin molecules replacing each original one every second, the total number you'd have had after 6 billion years would be 1.2 x 1083 hemoglobin molecules -- and this number would still be totally insignificant compared to the total possible combinations of the amino acids in just one hemoglobin molecule!!!"[7]
Therefore, if all this is true (and it seems to be); it's pretty much impossible that one single hemoglobin molecule evolved naturally let alone enough times to be used in as much life on Earth as it is today as evolution states had to happen.
(to be continued)
So, what are the chances reality just happened to exist like it does now due to random natural chance (thus only looks designed)?
So, considering all these odds together the chances reality formed the way it did naturally (thus randomly) are extremely unlikely: in fact, from these odds, it's safe to say that it's pretty much impossible that reality just formed the way it is now naturally (considering all these odds together, in percentage, it would be very very near 0% which means impossible in probability, as covered earlier) . So, reality doesn't just look designed; it almost had to be designed by [an] intelligent creator[s] to exists so precisely. So, our senses don't deceive us and there's no bias about reality looking designed: reality really seems to be designed thus strongly pointing to the existence of [a] creator[s] that designed it all.
(Either close to go back to Scientific observations Vs. Theories or click here to go back to menu)
Sources:
[1]
This term was first coined by Richard Dawkins in his book “The Blind Watchmaker” which in turn makes a reference to the watchmaker analogy first coined by William Paley in his book “Natural theology”:
Even though The Blind Watchmaker began as the title of a book it’s also been coined since then as a theory that Dawkin’s presented in his book: things only looked designed (the watch only look like it had a watchmaker) in reality it was all just random natural forces that created it and it only looks designed because of random chance and human Bias (in reality, the watch was made by the blind watchmaker: that is ‘blind’ natural forces made the watch and not an literal intelligent designer).
[A]
Wikipedia “The Blind Watchmaker”
Website:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blind_Watchmaker
[B]
"The watchmaker analogy was given by William Paley in his 1802 book Natural Theology or Evidences of the Existence and Attributes of the Deity."
from Wikipedia “Watchmaker analogy”
Website:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watchmaker_analogy
[2]
Discover “Science's Alternative to an Intelligent Creator: The Multiverse Theory” by By Tim Folger on Nov 10, 2008
Website:
[3]
(Quote A is through 12:23-12:44 of the video, Quote B by Mathematician John Lennox is through 13:28-13:44 of the video, and Quote C by Mathematician John Lennox is through 13:49-14:14)
Youtube.com "God Exists - Scientific Proof - Part 1 of 3" by Gevte on Apr 20, 2011
Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v90KVFIIOTA
[Quote A]
“...the ripples are so exact, down to 1 part in 100,000 That C.O.B.E. project leader George Smoot called them ‘The machining marks of the creation of the universe’ and also ‘the fingerprints of the maker’. This fine tuning clearly points to intelligent design.”
[4]
(Quote from Stephen Meyer at 17:14-17:31)
Youtube.com “Mathematical Challenges to Darwin’s Theory of Evolution (Uncommon knowledge with Peter Robinson)” by Hoover institution on July 22 2019
Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noj4phMT9OE&t=733s
[5]
[A]
“Over 2,000 enzymes have been identified,…”
from "Different Types Of Enzymes" Sciencing By Kevin Beck Updated Aug 30, 2022
Website:
https://www.sciencing.com/different-types-enzymes-4968363/
[B]
Good reads “Fred Hoyle Quotes”
Website:
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=Fred+Hoyle&commit=Search
[6]
[A]
"...a total of 574 amino acids are present in one molecule of [Hemoglobin] amino acid."
from (Introduction; structure) "Hemoglobin" A level Biology
Website:
[B]
“...eukaryotes being around 400 aa (that is Amino Acids) long on average”
From Table 1 (description) “How big is the “average” protein?” Cell biology by the numbers By Ron Milo and Rob Phillips
Website:
https://book.bionumbers.org/how-big-is-the-average-protein/
[7]
Hope of Isreal ministries “Darwin and Dogmatism -- Did Evolution REALLY Occur?” (Could Hemoglobin Have Evolved?) by H.O.I.M (Hope of Isreal ministries) staff
Website: